Strong Sunspot Cycle in 2012
Government scientists say the next sunspot cycle will be 30% to 50% stronger than the last one.
The unprecedented forecast was made using a computer model of solar dynamics developed by scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo.
Scientists predict the next cycle, called Cycle 24, will produce sunspots across an area slightly larger than 2.5 percent of the visible surface of the sun. The cycle is projected to reach its peak about 2012, one year later than previously indicated using a statistical process.
By analyzing recent solar cycles, the scientists also hope to forecast sunspot activity two solar cycles — 22 years — out. The team expects to issue the forecast of Cycle 25 within a year, which will peak in the early 2020s.
The researchers expect that predicting the sun`s cycles years in advance will lead to more accurate plans for solar storms, which can slow satellite orbits, disrupt communications, and bring down power systems.
The research results were published on-line in the American Geophysical Union journal Geophysical Research Letters.